Some of the more fantastic ethical dilemmas I encountered as a child were accompanied by Rod Serling's haunting narration on black and white episodes of The Twilight Zone. It's only now, as an adult member of society during a public health crisis, that I am able to draw fully on the parables from that strange and unforgettable sci-fi series.
One of the most disappointing aspects of COVID has been how many daily instances of selfish behavior one can witness. Groups of people congregating en masse on the beach with no regard for social distancing. Watching someone berate the lowest paid and most vulnerable essential workers for enforcing required mask-wearing in grocery stores. Add this to the unnerving distrust of science and paradoxical disdain for public health expertise, and the result is our American exceptionalism is managing the disease exceptionally poorly.
It brings to mind one classic episode of The Twilight Zone. In it, a down and out couple receive a mysterious brown paper package on their doorstep. It contains a small wooden box with a button. The interior of the box is empty, and the button does not seem to be attached to anything.
Later in the episode, a strange man in a trenchcoat shows up at the door to explain the package. If either of the couple press the button, two things will happen:
- They will receive a life-changing sum of money.
- Someone they don't know will die.
The man explains that they have a limited number of hours in which to act, after which he will return to reclaim the box.
The remainder of the episode explores the couple grappling with the moral implications of doing something for personal gain that results in the death of an anonymous person.
In the end, they opt to press the button. As soon as they do, the man appears with the promised sum of cash. As he reclaims the box and exits their home, he promises them, "Rest assured, the next recipient of the box will be someone you don't know..."
That's the thing with COVID. Your small selfish act today has the potential to return, with a multiplier effect, as great personal harm tomorrow.
This is not only about risking the health of marginalized or frail elderly that society was already on the verge of placing on ice floes (although our worth as a society is reflected in how we collectively care for the most vulnerable among us). The young are also at risk. Some are learning too late that they are less invincible than once thought.
Please don't push the button.
Comments 8
The show is long-gone. But some days I feel like we are all currently living inside The Twilight Zone.
Thanks for the blast from the past and applying this insight.
The virus has no arms. The virus has no legs. The virus has NO WILL. It’s just a 30K bit of genetic code. It’s arms, legs and will is entirely dependent on the behavior of humanity. The virus will penetrate humanity according to the Gibbs free energy of mixing. Mixing happens because a mixed situation has a higher entropy than a separated situation, and as long as the 1st derivative of Gibbs free energy is negative mixing will occur. Once entropy is maximized dG=0 and no more mixing will occur. Mixing is path independent. The end states are all that matter. In this case state 1 is unmixed and state 2 is mixed and the path in between matters not in terms of the thermodynamics of infection. Regarding infection, state 1 is uninfected state 2 is post infected, meaning mixing occurred. This is simple physical chemistry.
What is controllable is infection severity. Personally I don’t think there is going to be a vaccine. I have a friend who got it in April, fully recovered, and has it again in August. You can posit all kinds of narratives about secretly harboring reservoirs or something. But the Occam’s razor obvious is the most likely explanation. Immunity if it exists at all is short lived. My friend’s case confirms this. This immunologic response to this virus is not like polio or measles, so to analyze a response based on measles or polio is just wrong framework. Mortality is a problem but morbidity is a bigger problem. I saw a study that 72% of survivors at any level of invective severity had inflammatory heart changes on examination. In Hong Kong the main people that got sick were the young and 25% of the survivors had lasting changes in their lungs post infection.
There are partially effective treatments. One study I read that treated early infection with HCQ +- zithromax saw about a 70% decrease in mortality. Ivermectin also shows a decrease in mortality at a similar level when given early. So we have at least 2 partially effective, crude but cheap treatments, yet to be fully explored on an agenda free basis. Maybe more exist?
There is a concept called an OODA loop, Observe Orient Decide Attack. It’s the decision tree associated with dog fighting in airplanes. Dog fighting is wholly bound by the physics of the airplane. If you’re airplane is more agile you get to kill your opponent because you can decide and attack before he can attack. Above I just described the thermodynamics of the virus. What is needed is a way to attack in a time frame that matters. PRC with a 10 day wait and a $200 price tag is not in the loop. It’s a test that does not address the need. There is a cheap antigen test that can be mass printed on paper that costs $1. It is less sensitive than PRC but it can be developed in like 30 minutes like a pregnancy test. In terms of time, the virus detectable by PRC reaches levels detectable by the $1 test in 6 to 12 hours so you gain 9 1/2 days on your ability to Decide and it saved you $199.
I’m an engineer. If I was around in polio times I would have designed a small portable iron lung, not a vaccine. If a vaccine is not on the horizon then we need to come together to create a system which does the trick, because the virus has no arms legs or will. Only people have a will, and political stupidity won’t save you.
Author
Interesting point on pivoting the testing strategy, and one that may be gaining traction:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/rapid-Covid-tests.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Health
I remember this black and white episode well. The tall, creepy man who shows up unannounced at their door. The agony as the box sits on the kitchen table as they smoke cigarettes after cigarettes pondering the Big Decision.
Such a great lesson in morality.
Best,
-PoF
I stand corrected on the black and whiteness of the episode, but I was right about the cigarettes. I must have seen it when it originally aired and I was 10 years old.
It left an indelible impression on me, and has since been made into a movie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Button,_Button_(The_Twilight_Zone)
Best,
-PoF
Author
PoF,
I was 12 at the time it debuted, and I could have sworn it was black and white as well. I’d checked the wikipedia entry and was convinced it was a remake. I also did not recall the leading lady bearing such a striking resemblance to Ally Sheedy (of Breakfast Club fame). Guess it goes to show the poor reliability of human memory, something that experience continually reinforces (recall bias in investing is yet another example).
Thanks for stopping by,
CD
That’s what I would call a false choice.
Author
Fair critique, Carla.